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Everyone Knows the Next Forecast Date. Almost Nobody Knows Their Own Threshold
Most steering processes follow the calendar. New numbers arrive punctually for the reporting date. But what if something happens in the market in between?
Between month-end close, forecast and budget, the response comes more or less by chance: when someone notices something, when a variance escalates. The calendar determines when anyone looks. Geopolitics does not observe it.
An early warning system can help. It needs three answers first.
At what level of deviation, on which driver, does it become critical? Which leading indicator turns before revenue turns? And what is the prepared response when a threshold is breached?
Answering these three questions properly rarely takes longer than a workshop day. Yet few companies answer them before circumstances force it.
Almost everyone in the company knows the next forecast date. Almost nobody knows their own threshold for action.