Published on
Late Friday Afternoon, the Forecast Is Done, Then New Tariffs Arrive
Late Friday afternoon. The forecast has just been finalised. Then someone announces new tariffs.
This is not a new phenomenon. Covid changed supply chains overnight. The war in Ukraine recalibrated energy markets. Escalations in the Middle East move commodity prices before anyone is reachable again on Monday.
The pattern is similar each time. The events arrive at the wrong moment. Financial steering processes follow the calendar, and the world outside does not.
What follows is usually the same. Hurried alignment calls. Scenarios reconstructed after the point where decisions should already have been made.
The issue is not whether the effects can be quantified. The more interesting question is: what does a late answer cost?
Strange how rarely it gets asked.