Published on
We Plan Against Our Fears. Few Are Prepared for Relief
The escalation around the Strait of Hormuz illustrates this well. Almost every company had an oil price scenario at short notice: energy costs up, margin under pressure.
Now the situation is calming down. What I hear in conversations: many are missing the counter-scenario.
Energy costs normalise, investment freezes become negotiable, capacity comes back. Anyone who has not modelled that is as poorly prepared for good news as they used to be for bad.
Geopolitics runs in both directions. Most plans only run in one.