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You Can Build Scenarios, but in the End You Have to Commit
“You can build scenarios, but in the end you have to commit.”
That sentence describes the fundamental dilemma of modern steering better than any discussion of method. Uwe Pohlers of Leipziger Verkehrsbetriebe said it in his talk at the ManCon congress.
LVB have had a mature driver model for many years, build consistent scenarios, and can evaluate strategic decisions very quickly. Their statutes nevertheless require a business plan with concrete figures and a five-year financial perspective.
Scenarios deliver ranges and decision logic. Governing bodies want a number.
What works at LVB: deriving target points and budgets out of the scenarios. And then translating the result of the scenario work into the language of governance, without losing the insight.
Incidentally, even the best driver model cannot cover every aspect of steering. In certain places controlling still needs the cost-accounting depth that a driver model deliberately does not provide.
That openness impressed me. Here is someone who has worked on a real problem for years and shows openly where potential remains.
The method has been mature for years. The governance structures are not yet.