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In Uncertain Times, the Best Scenario Is Not What Decides
Classical planning works with one set of assumptions about the future. Scenarios accept that there can be several plausible versions of it.
In a volatile environment that is not a theoretical exercise. Demand, availability, technology and geopolitical developments keep changing the conditions.
Scenarios do not help you predict the future. They help you prepare for it.
The difference is not made in the calculation but in how you handle the result. What matters is whether it is clear in advance how you intend to respond to particular developments, and which alternatives will actually be available then.
Used properly, scenarios become an instrument for the ability to act. Not for reassurance, not for cover, but for steering.
A scenario with no consequences attached is an arithmetic exercise.