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And Now What? The Question After Almost Every Scenario Meeting
“And now what?” That question comes up after almost every scenario meeting.
Three revenue paths, two cost assumptions, downside and upside. Cleanly calculated and clearly presented. And then the meeting ends without the most important question having been answered.
Scenarios do not reduce uncertainty. The world does not become more predictable because you have calculated several numbers instead of one.
Scenario work can do something else. It can pre-structure decisions before the situation arrives.
Which measure gets triggered if material costs rise? Which investments continue if demand arrives later? Which initiative gets stopped if a particular threshold is breached?
Answer those questions before the meeting and you are steering. Ask them afterwards and you at least have good analysis.
More scenarios help little if nobody has decided what follows from them.