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Calculating Is Not Steering
“I can work that out quickly in Excel, you do not need more than a rule of three for it.”
I heard this from a CFO a while ago. The subject was new tariffs and their effects. The sentence stayed on my mind.
Yes, sometimes the world really does fit on the back of a beer mat. But as soon as markets turn, supply chains break or tariffs rise, there is not enough room. And even Excel reaches its limits.
Because a rule of three explains what happened. Not why it happened. And certainly not what might happen next.
Steering means understanding relationships. How volumes, prices, currencies and risks interlock. How decisions in one area work through to others.
And it goes further: good steering is not only about understanding but about shaping. Scenarios make options visible before they turn into problems.
The beer mat has its charm. So does Excel. But steering needs more than a rule of three. It needs systems thinking, and the nerve to make complexity visible.